Will the world formally recognise Taliban?

By Steven Erlanger,

The Americans left 20 years after the invasion, the Afghan government dissolved and the Taliban are now leading around 40 million people in one of the poorest countries that has been plagued by decades of violence and upheaval. Foreign powers must now decide how to deal with an organization that is on terrorist watchlists around the world.

What’s happening now?

Why are other countries so interested in Afghanistan’s future?

Three main reasons: counterterrorism, natural resources and humanitarian aid.

It is in the great interest of the world to ensure a stable Afghanistan that does not become a haven for terrorists, as was the case during the Taliban period from 1996 to 2001. They shielded al-Qaeda and its leader Osama bin Laden before and after the 9/11 attacks that led to the US-led offensive in Afghanistan. Although the Taliban are more moderate this time, they never broke with al-Qaeda.

Another terrorist organization, Islamic State Khorasan or ISIS-K, an Afghan offshoot of the Islamic State group, established itself during the US occupation, fought with the Taliban and attacked US forces. Whether the Taliban can control this group is a matter of concern.

The country’s neighbors will closely monitor the performance of a Taliban-led government. China, Afghanistan’s richest and most powerful neighbor, shares a short, remote border with Afghanistan that under the Taliban in the 1990s served as a refuge for Uyghurs militants from Xinjiang, the furthest west of China. Like Russia, China has opened its embassy in Kabul.

Also read: Are the Taliban a terrorist group? Omar Abdullah asks Center for clarification

Pakistan, which sees Afghanistan as a strategic bulwark against India, also has close ties with the Taliban, in part to isolate the Pakistani branch of the group that seeks to overthrow the Pakistani state.

Foreign powers are also grappling with the humanitarian catastrophe they left behind, which holds out the prospect of a new refugee crisis. The Taliban’s swift conquest of the country has displaced thousands of people.

The withdrawal of foreign troops left many thousands – possibly hundreds of thousands – of people connected to the US presence in the country, many of whom fear reprisals and want to leave. Hundreds of thousands of people are internally displaced and thousands more are stuck at land borders in the hope of fleeing.

The United Nations says that more than 18 million people – nearly half the population – are in need of help and half of all Afghan children under the age of 5 suffer from acute malnutrition during the second drought in four years. And then there is Covid-19.

And of course, several countries have commercial interests in the estimated $ 3 trillion of mineral reserves in Afghanistan, including gold, copper and lithium.

What must the Taliban do to gain international recognition?

Much of the world is watching what kind of government the Taliban form and how it is acting. The United States and the European Union have urged the Taliban to create a more inclusive leadership that represents women and the country’s ethnic and religious minorities.

During the last Taliban rule, only a handful of countries recognized their government. But their control is now more widespread, and foreign officials have been dealing with Taliban officials for some time.

Also read: Taliban say they have surrounded Afghan resistance fighters and are calling for peace

“The Taliban are measured by their actions – how they respect the international obligations entered into by the country, how they respect the fundamental rules of democracy and the rule of law,” said Peter Stano, a spokesman for the European Union. “The biggest red line is respect for human rights and especially the rights of women.”

The United States has stated that the Taliban will be judged by whether they allow Afghans and foreigners with valid documents to travel freely, women’s and minority rights, and, perhaps more importantly, whether the Taliban prevent international terrorist groups from using Afghanistan as a base .

“Every step we take is not based on what a Taliban-led government says, but on what it is doing to meet its obligations,” said Foreign Minister Antony Blinken.

Diplomatic recognition would help open direct channels for development aid and substantial credit from countries and institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

How much influence does the US and its allies have on the Taliban?

Most leverage can be measured in dollars.

The Afghan economy, so dependent on foreign aid and spending, is stalling, cash is running out, government salaries are being cut and prices are rising rapidly. Given the need for imports of food, medicine and energy, and fears of widespread hunger and disease, the West hopes the Taliban will be more receptive to demands for moderation.

For now, the United States, the European Union and Great Britain have suspended their extensive aid programs and Afghanistan’s central bank reserves, which are held almost exclusively abroad, have been frozen. The IMF has withheld $ 400 million to deliver to the old government this month.

US and Allied officials say they want to continue providing humanitarian aid no matter what political system emerges in Afghanistan. Most of the aid could be channeled through United Nations agencies or through a possible new World Bank trust fund so that countries would not donate directly to the Taliban.

The greatest leverage the United States and the rest of the world have against the Taliban is terrorism sanctions, which prohibit donations of money, goods and services. Some of these sanctions have made relief efforts difficult even by nonprofit groups trying to maintain their political neutrality and simply help those in need.

Given the Taliban’s history of human rights abuses and reliance on illegal funding, sanctions are likely to remain in place for the time being.

Will the Taliban claim the UN seat of Afghanistan?

The once unthinkable prospect of a Taliban envoy to represent Afghanistan to the United Nations, a powerful symbol of international legitimacy, seems a step closer. But there are still big hurdles.

An official application has yet to be submitted and has to be reviewed by a rotating group of nine countries that currently includes the United States. The UN ambassador of the overthrown Afghan government will hold the seat for the time being.

Diplomats say any request from the Taliban for the seat would be premature. “We are not yet in a place where we are ready to recognize the Taliban,” said US Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield.

Will the world take responsibility for those left behind?

Nobody is sure.

The US and 97 other countries said they would continue to take in people fleeing Afghanistan and had reached an agreement with the Taliban to allow safe transit. The Taliban’s chief negotiator announced at the end of August that the group would not prevent people with foreign passports and Afghans with valid visas from leaving the country, but that remains to be seen.

There are numerous reports of Taliban fighters looking for people who held important positions in the old government or supported NATO forces. Some were killed; others fear for their lives. The main international airport in Kabul is not working and the prospects of reopening remain unclear.

Most of the most important land crossings are also closed. The United Nations estimates that by the end of the year 500,000 Afghans could flee the country, mainly to Pakistan and Iran.