The world must be ready for the Afghan exodus

Afghanistan updates

Subscribe to myFT Daily Digest to be the first to know about the latest news from Afghanistan.

Afghans clinging desperately to planes and military transports at Kabul airport will certainly be some of the defining images of the collapse caused by the withdrawal of the West from their country. Around 60 nations have issued a declaration stating that Afghans and foreign nationals who want to leave the country must do so. Getting them out is only half the battle, however; they need to be guarded and protected and eventually find a new life. Mass international efforts will be required to cope with the large numbers of refugees who are likely to flee from renewed Taliban rule.

How big this wave will be depends in part on the nature of the new regime. Western countries and Afghanistan’s neighbors must make it clear to Taliban leaders that their government will be a pariah again if it reimposes the hardline theocracy of two decades ago – and bloody revenge on those who fought for foreign forces or the previous regime or have worked.

But foreign leaders should also consider the possibility that if, for example, the rights of girls and women to education and work and freedom of expression are respected, trade, aid and potential recognition could follow over time. Some Taliban leaders say that is what they want. It is not clear whether they can be trusted or how far their disposition extends among the subordinates of the province

Many citizens won’t wait to find out. The first priority for evacuation is local interpreters, embassy staff and others who have worked for foreign forces, as well as families. The coalition countries must accelerate visa processing and do everything possible to ensure safe transit.

However, as Human Rights Watch points out, the list of risks extends to anyone who worked for foreign-funded or domestic civil society groups that promoted democracy and women’s rights, as well as many journalists, writers, and academics. In fact, very many people – including potentially all women and girls – can be at risk of persecution. According to estimates by the UN Refugee Agency, around 250,000 Afghans, mostly women and children, have been forced to flee since the end of May.

Recommended

If possible, refugees should initially be accommodated in the region. Western countries should try to convince their neighbors to keep their borders open by providing adequate support for setting up and managing refugee camps. However, since the Taliban rule could be long-term, extensive international resettlement efforts are required.

The moral responsibility here lies primarily with the coalition states involved in the Afghanistan conflict, which should be ready to accept figures that correspond to the size of their economies and their level of commitment. With the upcoming elections in Germany and France in particular, this risks being politically poisoned; Attempts by the EU to impose “quotas” on Middle Eastern migrants in 2015 faded into resentment. But Canada – whose government has just called elections for September – has made a start by pledging to relocate 20,000 Afghan citizens from risk groups.

Just as pictures from the fall of Kabul in 1975 remind us of Saigon, the world must mobilize a similar response, even if the numbers are lower. Three weeks after the fall of the South Vietnamese capital, US President Gerald Ford implemented a program that took in 300,000 refugees from Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos by 1979. About 2.5 million Indochinese refugees were eventually relocated to North America, Europe and Australia. The attitudes have changed since then; The wave of migrants in 2015 fueled populist nationalism. But Western democracies will suffer a little for their mishandling of Afghan withdrawal if they are ready to cope with the resulting emigration. Avoiding refugees will further tarnish their reputation.