Judge under U.S. sanctions set for presidency as Iranians vote

• Front runner Raisi says he supports nuclear talks
• Election is considered a referendum on the performance of the heads of state or government
• Economic misery and US sanctions are central issues
• Khamenei appeals for large participation

DUBAI, June 18 (Reuters) – Iranians voted on Friday in a presidential election likely to be won by a hard-line judge subject to US sanctions overseas.

Given the uncertainty over Iran’s efforts to revive its 2015 nuclear deal with six world powers, the turnout is viewed by analysts as a referendum on how the leadership will deal with a number of crises.

After Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei cast his vote in the capital, Tehran, he urged Iranians to cast their vote, saying: “Every vote counts … come and choose your president”.

The favorite to succeed Hassan Rouhani, a pragmatist who is constitutionally prevented from a third four-year term in office, is hardliner Ebrahim Raisi.

Raisi, who like his political patron Khamenei is a relentless critic of the West, is under US sanctions for allegedly participating in the execution of political prisoners decades ago.

“If Raisi is elected, he will be the first recent Iranian president to be sanctioned not only before taking office, but possibly also during his tenure,” said analyst Jason Brodsky.

That fact could alarm Washington and liberal Iranians, Iranian policy analysts said, especially given President Joe Biden’s heightened focus on human rights around the world.

Raisi, a middle figure in the hierarchy of Shiite Muslim clergy in Iran, was appointed senior justice chief by Khamenei in 2019.

Several months later, the US imposed sanctions on him for alleged human rights violations, including the executions of political prisoners in the 1980s and the crackdown in 2009 in which he was involved, according to human rights groups.

Iran has never recognized the mass executions, and the 60-year-old Raisi himself has never publicly addressed allegations about his role.

State television showed long queues in front of the polling stations in several cities. More than 59 million Iranians are eligible to vote. Polls will close at 1930 GMT but can be extended by two hours. The results are expected around noon on Saturday.

A victory for Raisi would confirm the political downfall of pragmatic politicians like Rouhani, weakened by the US decision to end the nuclear deal and impose sanctions that stifled rapprochement with the West.

“Elections are important despite the problems and problems … I wish we had none of these problems since registration day,” said Rouhani after his vote, a clear indication of the rejection of prominent moderate and conservative candidates from the race by a hard-line electoral body .

Official opinion polls suggest that the turnout may be as low as 44%, significantly lower than in previous elections.

DECISIVE SUPPORT

A victory for Raisi would not interfere with Iran’s attempt to revive the deal and rid itself of harsh oil and financial sanctions, Iranian officials say, as the country’s ruling clergy are aware that their political fortunes depend on deteriorating economic ones Difficulties to cope with.

“Raisi’s greatest challenge will be the economy. Protests will be inevitable unless he succeeds in healing the nation’s economic problems,” said a government official.

Under pressure from rising inflation and unemployment, the clerical leadership needs a large number of votes to bolster its legitimacy, which has been damaged after a series of protests against poverty and political restrictions across Iran since 2017.

Raisi’s biggest rival is a pragmatic technocrat, former central bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, who says that for any hardliner, victory will lead to even more outside sanctions. During the election campaign, he said that Iran could hold talks with its long-standing archenemy, the USA, if it stuck to a “positive coexistence” with Iran.

Raisi is crucially supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, a powerful institution that has opposed reform initiatives over the years, overseeing the repression of protests, and deploying proxies to maintain Iran’s regional influence.

The middle clergyman says he supports Iran’s talks with six major powers to revive the nuclear deal, in which Iran agreed to curtail its nuclear program in return for lifting sanctions.

Reporting by Parisa Hafezi, editing by William Maclean

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