Concerned United Nations can only sidestep Myanmar crisis

BANGKOK (dpa) – In his speech last week at the opening of the UN General Assembly, General Secretary Antonio Guterres described Myanmar, Afghanistan and Ethiopia, as nations for whose people “peace and stability remain a distant dream”.

He declared his unreserved support for the people of the turbulent, militarily ruled Southeast Asian state “in their pursuit of democracy, peace, human rights and the rule of law”.

But the situation in Myanmar after the army seized power eight months ago has turned into an extended bloody conflict with ever escalating violence. However, it is unlikely that the United Nations will do anything against the new rulers of Myanmar, given the support of China and Russia.

When Myanmar’s army overthrew the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi, it claimed with little evidence that the parliamentary elections, which their party’s landslide win last November, had been marred by massive electoral fraud. The takeover almost immediately sparked widespread street protests that security forces tried to crush. Since then, the pushback has become violent.

“The military’s iron grip of power is meeting with resistance in large sections of society. Military weapons continue to be used in cities to suppress the opposition, ”UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said in a statement Thursday. “These disturbing trends point to the alarming possibility of an escalating civil war.”

Human rights groups have cataloged many violations by government forces, including the use of deadly force against peaceful civilian protesters and enforced disappearances. But the enemies of the army have also turned to terror, as even their sympathizers admit. Local officials who refuse to leave their posts are murdered, as are civilians known as informants.

“Sabotage and assassinations are not the norm in a civilized society,” Mon Yee Kyaw, executive director of Myanmar-based think tank Nyan Lynn Thit Analytica, said in an email interview. However, due to the violence perpetrated by the military, bombing and assassination tactics have been used as defensive measures, she said from Thailand, where she is currently staying.

“People no doubt believe that they must take action to defeat the military before the monster kills people,” she said.

Much is at stake, warns UN Bachelet. “The national consequences are terrible and tragic. The regional consequences could also be profound, ”she said. “The international community must redouble its efforts to restore democracy and prevent major conflicts before it is too late.”

But there is at least one major obstacle to future UN action, which could include measures like a full arms embargo. China and Russia are among Myanmar’s most important arms suppliers and have ideological sympathy for the ruling military. Both are members of the Security Council and would almost certainly veto any attempt by the UN to impose a coordinated arms embargo or anything beyond a mere call for peace.

The opposition forces in Myanmar have a little consolation. It has been reported that the Credentials Committee of the General Assembly, which goes through the formality of approving the Permanent Representative of each country at each meeting, will temporarily postpone its decision on the Permanent Representative of Myanmar.

The current envoy, Ambassador Kyaw Moe Tun, switched allegiance shortly after taking power in February to the opposition National Unity government, which describes itself as a legitimate alternative to the ruling generals. He appears to be holding his seat for at least a few months – or at least denying a representative of the military government.

It is a rare feather in the shadow government’s diplomatic cap that has not been recognized by any nation, but it is reportedly at the expense of the envoy, who is silent during discussions in the world body, including the opportunity to speak for his nation on Monday .

Countries sympathetic to the opposition, such as the United States and Great Britain, have imposed diplomatic and economic sanctions that are causing great inconvenience to the ruling generals. But calls for more decisive action, for example within the framework of the humanitarian doctrine of the right to protection, have long since fallen on deaf ears.

Peaceful protests in cities and towns across Myanmar that began in February were met with deadly force by security forces. To date, according to the UN organization Bachelet and human rights groups, more than 1,100 people have been killed.

As a result, protesters began wielding simple homemade weapons and then organized themselves into local militias, which they called “People’s Defense Forces”. While these groups were formed primarily to defend sites from state attack, some became more proactive and participated in killings and bombings of government offices and commercial companies with links to the military.

The government of national unity seeks to forge them into an army. It has also forged alliances with militias formed by ethnic minority groups in the border regions where they dominate. Most of these ethnic armed organizations have fought against the central government for more autonomy for decades.

With up to 70 years of combat experience, groups like the Kachin in the north and the Karen in the east have the potential to put additional pressure on the government. Some also offer military training for militants and safe havens for opposition leaders.

The National Unity Government set the stage for violence to escalate when it called for a nationwide uprising on September 7 and declared a “war of people’s defense”.

“It’s hard to say if it will be productive and what the long-term consequences could be,” Christina Fink, professor of international affairs at George Washington University in Washington, DC, said via email.

“The regime certainly has an advantage in terms of military know-how, weapons, equipment and manpower,” said Fink. “The military is suffering from resistance, but whether these tactics will lead to a military concession is not clear.”

She and other observers point out that the opposition continues to exert nonviolent pressure, such as refusing to pay electricity bills, which denies the regime much-needed cash.

Resistance comes in a variety of forms and shapes across Myanmar, said Aung Kyaw Moe, executive director of the Myanmar Center for Social Integrity, which promotes pluralism, diversity and inclusion.

“The junta troops fight because the troops have to follow a chain of command and the members of the People’s Defense Forces fight because they want to defend democracy against dictatorship,” he said.

The army has not prevailed so far, “because so many people are ready to lose everything in order to overcome military rule,” said Fink. “Their anger and hatred of the military are incredibly deep.”

“That’s because the election results showed so clearly the will of the people and the military took it away; because people equate military rule with economic, political and social regression; and because the military has acted so brutally against civilians, including children, and people not only heard about it, but also saw graphic images that document it on social media. “