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In contrast to the escalating forms that Californians normally struggle with in the voting booths, the ballots for the re-election of Governor Gavin Newsom ask only two questions:
Should Newsom be called back? And who should replace him?
But if my inbox has any clues, the quick vote is far from easy.
I’ve received questions from opponents of the recall who want to know if answering the second question invalidates (or won’t) their no to the first question. Some Democrats are looking for guidance in choosing the least conservative Republican substitute if the recall is successful. And many voters are confused as to why Newsom has told people to ignore the second question altogether.
“The biggest confusion in this election is what your rights are if you vote in the by-election,” Raphael Sonenshein, executive director of the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs at California State University in Los Angeles, told me. “Voting should be easy, and it’s not that easy.”
A tricky political calculation for Democrats
California’s peculiar 1911 recall laws are largely to blame for this mess.
Recalls are a two-step process here: voters decide whether to remove a candidate from office and who should be the successor. (There are some states where the lieutenant governor automatically replaces a removed governor, but most states elect the replacement.)
The unusual thing about California law is that both elections have to take place on the same day and on the same ballot. And the incumbent, in this case Newsom, is not allowed to run for the replacement election.
So the Democrats have to negotiate a delicate political calculation: How do you endorse a replacement candidate if you don’t want the governor to be replaced?
Well, there is Option A: support a politically-minded Democrat in the replacement race and hope the candidate is not so popular that people will vote to call Newsom back because they prefer the support. Or option B: Ignore the second question and focus on the first.
The latter seems to be Newsom’s strategy. “One question. One answer. No to call back. Move on. Send the ballot in,” the governor said recently.
The party went the other way in the re-election of another Democratic governor, Gray Davis, in 2003. As a substitute candidate, Cruz Bustamante, the popular lieutenant governor of the Democrats, ran. However, when Davis was deposed, he was replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican candidate.
Joshua Spivak, a senior fellow at Wagner College’s Hugh L. Carey Institute for Government Reform, said there was no evidence that a prominent candidate from your party on the replacement ballot increased your chances of staying in office. In other words, Newsom’s strategy could be the best way for him to win the call.
“When you are in the majority, it makes a lot of sense to have a clear choice, and having two different people to choose from is not a blatant choice,” said Spivak. “I think the look of saying ‘ignore the second question’ is particularly bad, but not necessarily the logic behind it, which makes a lot of sense.”
Bustamante himself, who now runs a consulting firm, told the Los Angeles Times last month that he supported the party’s decision not to advocate replacements. On his own ballot, he said he left the second question blank.
The downside of leaving ballots blank
Still, there is confusion.
In a poll released Wednesday, 49 percent of likely voters said they either wouldn’t fill out the second question or didn’t know who to vote. Some California newspapers that have spoken out in favor of voting against the recall have recommended leaving the second question blank, while others have called for the opposite.
I got a handful of emails from people saying they wrote the second question on Newsom’s behalf, even though they knew it wouldn’t count. They just didn’t know what else to do.
Jessica Levinson, who teaches suffrage at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles, said it was a “disaster” that Democratic Party campaigners advising people to leave parts of their ballots blank.
“Why would you say that you are not even exercising your right to choose the next governor?” She said.
Levinson added that it was strategic for the Democratic Party not to advocate an alternative to Newsom. He will most likely run for governor again in 2022, she said, and it would be easier to win against a Republican, especially one who received only a small fraction of the vote in re-election.
For more:
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The New York Times has answers to your most frequently asked questions about callback dialing. Scroll to the bottom of the page for links to recommendations from California newspapers.
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Democrats hope that the new Texas law banning most abortions will motivate voters to support their party. Newsom warned on Twitter this week that the Texas ban “could be CA’s future” if the recall succeeds. Read more from my colleague Reid J. Epstein on the political implications of Texan legislation.
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In case you missed it, a poll released Wednesday shows strong support for Newsom. 58 percent of likely voters said they would oppose the recall. Read more from Politico.
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In 1911, California voters overwhelmingly voted in favor of a vote that made the state the third to allow recalls. I wrote about the history of the callbacks this week.
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More than five million ballot papers have already been cast. Keep track of things here.
The rest of the news
What we eat
In her latest newsletter, Tejal Rao, the Times California restaurant critic, shares Panzanella recipes that give stale bread a second life.
Where are we going
Today’s travel tip is from Mackenzie Skye, a reader who recommends a visit to Mendocino, which she calls “one of the most beautiful places”.
Tell us about the best places to visit in California. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com. We’ll share more in the upcoming issues of the newsletter.
What we recommend
This week I finished reading “Breath: The New Science of a Lost Art” by journalist James Nestor. It is not an easy task to write airily, even funny, about biology and medicine, but Nestor manages it.
And before you go, some good news
The Dapper Dans, the pin-striped, straw hat-wearing a cappella singing group, returns to Disneyland on Friday.
The barbershop quartet will return to Main Street USA as part of the next stage of the park’s reopening, reports The Orange County Register.
The group had their first rehearsal last week after the pandemic separated them for 17 months. The dans prepare Halloween dance numbers and songs as well as a bonus.
“We’re working on a little extra thing,” John Glaudini, a record producer for Disney Live Entertainment, told the newspaper. “A little gift.”
Thank you for reading. I’ll be back on Tuesday. Enjoy your long weekend. – Soumya
PS Here is today’s mini crossword and a clue: Beach House Support (5 letters).
Steven Moity and Miles McKinley contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.
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