EXPLAINER: When is the US war in Afghanistan really over?

WASHINGTON (AP) – While the last US combat troops are preparing to leave Afghanistan, the question arises: When is the war really over?

For Afghans, the answer is clear, but bleak: no time. An emboldened Taliban insurgency is making gains on the battlefield and prospective peace talks have stalled. Some fear that once the foreign troops are gone, Afghanistan will sink deeper into civil war. Although humiliated, an Afghan branch of the extremist network Islamic State is also lurking.

For the United States and its coalition partners, the endgame is grim. Although all combat troops and 20 years of accumulated war material will soon be gone, the head of the US Central Command, General Frank McKenzie, will have the authority to defend the Afghan armed forces against the Taliban until at least September. He can do this by ordering attacks with US fighter jets outside of Afghanistan, Defense officials said, who discussed details of military planning on condition of anonymity.

The Pentagon announced on Friday that the US military had left Bagram Airfield after nearly 20 years. The facility was the epicenter of the war, but handing it over to the Afghan government did not mean the final withdrawal of the US military from the country.

A U.S. Army UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter assigned to 1st Combat Aviation Brigade, 1st Infantry Division, during a mission in eastern Afghanistan Oct. 23, 2016. (Photo by Captain Grace Geiger)

A look at the end of the war:

WHAT’S LEFT OF THE COMBAT MISSION?

Technically, the US armed forces have not been involved in the ground fighting in Afghanistan since 2014. But since then, anti-terrorist troops have been tracking and beating extremists, including with Afghan aircraft. Those fighter jets are now gone and these attacks are being carried out from outside the country along with logistical support from the Afghan armed forces.

US troops will no longer be in Afghanistan to train or advise the Afghan armed forces. An unusually large US security contingent of 650 soldiers stationed on the premises of the US embassy will protect American diplomats and possibly help secure Kabul International Airport. Turkey is expected to continue its current mission to ensure airport security, but McKenzie will have the authority to keep up to 300 more soldiers in support of this mission through September.

It is also possible that the U.S. military could be asked to assist in a large-scale evacuation of Afghans applying for special immigrant visas, although State Department-led efforts involve the use of commercially chartered aircraft and may not require a military airlift. The White House is concerned that Afghans who supported the US war effort, leaving them vulnerable to Taliban retaliation, will not be left behind.

When he decided to end the US war in April, President Joe Biden gave the Pentagon until September 11 to complete the withdrawal. The Pentagon announced on Friday that it now plans to complete the withdrawal by the end of August. The responsible army general in Kabul, Scott Miller, has essentially already finished it, almost all military equipment is gone and only a few troops are left.

The Pentagon said Miller was expected to remain in command for a few more weeks. But will his departure this month mark the end of the US war? With up to 950 U.S. soldiers in the country by September and the potential for further airstrikes, the answer is likely not to be.

LIKE A WAR END

In contrast to Afghanistan, some wars end in bloom. The First World War was over with the armistice signed with Germany on November 11, 1918 – a day that is now celebrated as a federal holiday in the USA – and the later signing of the Treaty of Versailles.

The Second World War was celebrated twice in 1945: Germany’s surrender as a victory in Europe (VE day) and Japan’s surrender a few months later as a victory over Japan (VJ day) after the US atom bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In Korea, an armistice signed in July 1953 ended the fighting, although the war was technically suspended only because a peace treaty was never signed.

Other endings are less clear. The US withdrew troops from Vietnam in 1973 in what many call a failed war that ended with the fall of Saigon two years later. And when convoys of US troops left Iraq in 2011, a ceremony marked their final departure. But just three years later, American troops were back to rebuild Iraqi forces, which collapsed under the attacks of Islamic State militants.

Win or lose?

At the end of the American war in Afghanistan there will be no surrender and no peace treaty, no ultimate victory and no decisive defeat. Biden says it is enough that US forces dismantled al-Qaeda and killed Osama bin Laden, the group’s leader who is believed to be the mastermind behind the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.

Violence in Afghanistan has escalated recently. Taliban attacks on Afghan forces and civilians have intensified, and the group has taken control of more than 100 district centers. Pentagon leaders have said there is a “medium” risk that the Afghan government and its security forces will collapse within the next two years, if not sooner.

US leaders insist that the only way to achieve peace in Afghanistan is through a negotiated solution. The Trump administration signed an agreement with the Taliban in February 2020 that said the US would withdraw its troops by May 2021 in exchange for Taliban promises, including the fact that Afghanistan is once again a scene of attacks on America.

US officials say the Taliban will not fully honor their end of the bargain even if the US continues its withdrawal.

BORN MISSION

NATO’s Resolute Support mission to train, advise and support the Afghan security forces began in 2015 when the US-led combat mission was declared over. At that point, the Afghans took full responsibility for their security, but continued to rely on US aid worth billions of dollars.

At the height of the war there were more than 130,000 soldiers from 50 NATO and partner countries in Afghanistan. That shrunk to about 10,000 soldiers from 36 nations for the Resolute Support mission, and by that week most had withdrawn their troops.

Some see the end of the war when NATO’s mission is declared over. But that can’t happen for months.

According to official information, Turkey is negotiating a new bilateral agreement with Afghan leaders to stay at the airport for security. Until the conclusion of this agreement, the legal authorities for the stay of Turkish troops in Afghanistan are under the auspices of the Resolute Support Mission.

COUNTER-FAULT MISSION

The withdrawal of US troops does not mean the end of the war on terrorism. The US has made it clear that it continues to have the authority to launch attacks against al-Qaeda or other terrorist groups in Afghanistan if they threaten the US homeland.

Because the US has withdrawn its fighter and surveillance aircraft from the country, it must now rely on manned and unmanned flights from ships at sea and air bases in the Gulf region, such as the al-Dhafra air base in the United Arab Emirates. The Pentagon is looking for base alternatives for surveillance aircraft and other assets in countries closer to Afghanistan. No agreements have been made so far.

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Associated Press writer Kathy Gannon contributed to this report.

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