Analysis: China’s hard climate stance with U.S. imperils Glasgow talks

A man walks near a coal-fired power plant in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province, China, November 27, 2019. Picture dated November 27, 2019. REUTERS / Jason Lee

SHANGHAI, Sept. 15 (Reuters) – China’s refusal to accept calls for lower carbon emissions on recent visits by leading US and UK climate officials could undermine progress at the upcoming Glasgow global climate summit in November, experts say.

China rejected US envoy John Kerry’s appeal to strengthen its emissions targets ahead of the COP26 summit, saying that the climate cannot be separated from the further disruption of relations between the countries.

This change in China’s tone on climate relations between the world’s two largest greenhouse gas emitters slowed the momentum of the Glasgow talks and contrasts with the collaboration between the two countries in 2015 that paved the way for the groundbreaking Paris Climate Agreement.

China no longer feels obliged to consider requests for deeper carbon cuts after former President Donald Trump rejected US commitments on climate change, particularly by pulling out of the Paris Agreement, especially after relations between the two countries worsened during the period Trump’s tenure in terms of trade, human rights and geopolitics have worsened problems, experts say.

China and the US still understand climate issues, but “the bigger problem now is the difference in the political positions of the two sides,” said Zou Ji, President of the Energy Foundation China, who was part of the Chinese delegation to the 2015 Paris Conference was conversations.

“The balance of power and influence on the two sides has changed.”

The United States says China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has not done enough despite pledging to reduce emissions to “net zero” by 2060, a source of greenhouse gases.

However, China argues that its current commitments are strong.

President Xi Jinping has repeatedly pledged to increase the “strength” of its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), the emissions targets each country must submit under the Paris Agreement, in order to support China’s commitment to achieving the “net zero” target for To be reflected in 2060.

China’s chief climate officer Xie Zhenhua said in August that China has already reinforced other commitments, including a new renewable energy target and a commitment to peak emissions “before” 2030 instead of “around” 2030.

China has also announced that it will cut coal consumption from 2026 and get 25% of its energy from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.

Overseas pressure

The Chinese government does not want to be seen giving in to overseas pressure to cut coal consumption, US diplomatic sources said. China is the largest consumer of coal in the world and the industry employs many workers.

“With all the uncertainties, one thing has become clear: Beijing will not give in to foreign powers,” said Li Shuo, a climate expert at Greenpeace. “The best way to advance Chinese climate protection is to align it with China’s own interests.”

China must submit updated NDCs before the start of COP26. But instead of introducing new commitments, analysts expect them to provide more detail on how to meet existing long-term goals, which Premier Li Keqiang describes as extremely difficult.

Environmental think tanks such as the Innovative Green Development Program (IGDP) base in Beijing say the government of China could update NDCs to include a cap on energy use by 2025, more measures against greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, and a “roadmap” “To achieve existing goals.

Last week, the China Center for International Cooperation on Environment and Development, a government advisory body, also recommended that China set a cap on total emissions by 2025.

However, it is uncertain whether the government will make any major changes to the NDCs, and China’s comments after meeting with Kerry are no cause for optimism.

The US had hoped to hold climate debates as “separate” topics from other issues such as its support for Taiwan and allegations of human rights abuses in Xinjiang.

But senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi told Kerry during their meeting that the “oasis” of climate cooperation could not be separated from the diplomatic “desert” between them.

China, for its part, could seek exemptions from a new European carbon border tax and get richer countries to meet funding pledges to industrialized countries, analysts said.

Beijing will also seek assurances that Washington can keep its own pledges, said Zou of the Energy Foundation China.

“If Trump or someone with the same views returns, it will matter to everyone whether US climate policy will take another turn,” he said.

Alex Wang, an expert on environmental law at the University of California at Los Angeles, said the United States could best influence China’s climate action by example.

“The US reviews are not surprising and point to real areas where China needs to get better,” he said. “But the United States hasn’t done nearly enough either. One of the best ways the United States can pressure now is to take decisive and lasting climate action at home.”

Reporting by David Stanway and Muyu Xu; Editing by Christian Schmollinger

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