The promise of open-source intelligence

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The promise of open-source intelligence

August 7, 2021

TTHE BIG hope of the 1990s and 2000s was that the internet would be a force for openness and freedom. As Stewart Brand, an online community pioneer, put it, “Information wants to be free because the cost of publishing it keeps dropping.” It shouldn’t be. Bad information often turns out well. Authoritarian states have embraced the technologies that should loosen their grip. Information was used as a weapon of war. Amid this disappointment, one development gives rise to new hope: the emerging era of open source intelligence (OSINT).

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New sensors, from monotonous dashboard cameras to satellites that can see beyond the electromagnetic spectrum, are examining the planet and its people like never before. The information collected becomes cheaper. Satellite images cost several thousand dollars 20 years ago; today they are often provided free of charge and are of incomparably higher quality. With just a few clicks, a photo of every spot on earth, of a tanker that has crashed or the routes of joggers in a city is available. And online communities and collaborative tools like Slack enable hobbyists and experts to use this cornucopia of information to solve puzzles and uncover misdeeds at astonishing speed.

Human Rights Watch analyzed satellite images to document ethnic cleansing in Myanmar. Nanosatellites mark the automatic identification system of ships that fish illegally. Amateur detectives have helped Europol, the European Union Police Department, investigate the sexual exploitation of children by identifying geographic clues in the background of photos. Even hedge funds routinely track the movements of corporate executives in private jets, monitored by a network of amateurs around the world to predict mergers and acquisitions.

In doing so, OSINT strengthens civil society, strengthens law enforcement and makes markets more efficient. It can also humiliate some of the most powerful countries in the world.

In light of the Kremlin’s vehement denials, the Bellingcat investigative group meticulously demonstrated Russia’s role in the downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014 with little more than a handful of photos, satellite images, and elementary geometry. It then identified the Russian agents who tried to assassinate Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy, in England in 2018. Amateur analysts and journalists used OSINT to investigate the full extent of the Uighur detention centers in Xinjiang. In the past few weeks, satellite imagery researchers have seen China erecting hundreds of nuclear missile silos in the desert.

Such an emancipation from information promises profound effects. The decentralized and egalitarian nature of OSINT undermines the power of traditional arbitrators over truth and lies, especially governments and their spies and soldiers. For those like this newspaper who believe that secrecy is too easily abused by those in power, OSINT is welcome.

The likelihood that the truth will emerge increases the cost of wrongdoing to governments. While OSINT may not prevent Russia from entering Ukraine or China from building its gulag, it reveals the weakness of their lies. Eliot Higgins, the founder of Bellingcat, is right when he describes his organization as “the people’s intelligence”. No wonder Russia’s chief espionage railed against it, most recently this month.

Liberal democracies are also held more honestly. Citizens will no longer have to trust their governments. News outlets will have new ways to hold them accountable. Today’s open sources and methods would have shed a clearer light on the 2003 Bush administration’s allegation that Iraq was developing chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. That would have put America’s invasion of the country under scrutiny. It might even have prevented it.

Some will warn that OSINT threatens national security – for example, when researchers use data from fitness trackers to uncover remote CIA outposts and radar satellites to locate American anti-missile defense systems. But if OSINT can tell the world about such things, a country’s enemies may already know them. Pretending otherwise does not make states safer.

Others will point out that OSINT may be wrong. After the bombing of the Boston Marathon in 2013, internet users scrutinized the crime scene and identified several suspects. All were innocent bystanders. Or OSINT could be used by bad actors to spread misinformation and conspiracy theories.

However, every source of information is fallible, and the verification of images and data is more empirical than most of them. Therefore, when OSINT is wrong or malicious, a competing OSINT is often the best way to get it right. And over time, researchers and investigators can build a reputation for honesty, sound analysis, and good judgment, making it easier for people to distinguish trusted intelligence sources from charlatans.

The biggest concern is that the data explosion behind open source investigations is also threatening individual privacy. The data generated by phones and sold by brokers enables Bellingcat to identify the Russian spies who poisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny last year. Similar data was used to identify a senior Catholic priest in America who resigned last month after his location was linked to his use of Grindr, a gay dating app.

A transparent world

The privacy of the individual in the digital age is fraught with compromises. At the level of states and organizations, however, OSINT promises a force for good. It is also unstoppable. Before the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the American government was able to buy up virtually all relevant commercial satellite imagery. Too much data is available today for that.

A world in which many American, European, Chinese, and Russian satellite companies vie to sell images is one of mutually secure surveillance. This is a future that open societies should embrace. Tools and communities that can dig up missile silos and reveal spies will make the world less mysterious and a little less dangerous. Information still wants to be free – and OSINT is on a mission to free it.

This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the heading “The Panopticon of the People”