Missing context from claim about cost of Build Back Better

Claiming: The Build Back Better Act costs $ 5 trillion

The House of Representatives passed President Joe Biden’s Build Back Better Act in late November, which approved Democrats’ trillion dollar social spending priorities, including paid vacation and universal pre-kindergarten.

The bipartisan budget bureau of Congress said the move, which faces an uncertain future in the Senate, includes approximately $ 1.7 trillion in spending and would add about $ 160 billion to national debt over the next decade. But some have doubts about the price of the bill.

“Joe Biden’s lie: ‘Build Back Better’ costs $ 1.75 trillion,” read a December 1 Facebook post from the Convention of States, a conservative nonprofit Citizens for Self-Governance project. “The truth: it costs $ 5 trillion.”

Within two days, the Post collected more than 500 shares. Similar claims have sparked tens of thousands of interactions on Facebook and Instagram over the past month, according to CrowdTangle, a social media insights tool.

Several Republican MPs in the House of Representatives released the estimate, including minority leader Kevin McCarthy. Senators have also taken up the topic of conversation.

More:What does the House-passed Build Back Better Act say? Paid Vacation, Universal Pre-K, and more

“I think you can see this bill like ‘Build Back broke’ among other things,” Senator John Cornyn, R-Texas, said at a December 1st press conference. “This doesn’t cost $ 0, as President Biden had the audacity to suggest, and it doesn’t cost $ 1.75 trillion. It’s closer to spending $ 5 trillion and someone has to do the bill. “

This cost estimate is real, but the claim lacks context.

As previously written, the Build Back Better Act provides for more than $ 2 trillion in spending and tax cuts, according to estimates by independent budget watchdog groups. If all programs were made permanent, they could cost up to $ 5 trillion – but that would have to be decided by future conventions.

USA TODAY turned to the Convention of States for comment.

Cost estimate for long-term programs, no invoice as written

Two independent research estimates that the Build Back Better Act costs more than $ 2 trillion when you factor in both spending and tax spending. The price could double if Congress made the programs of the bill permanent.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a deficit reduction group, estimates that the Build Back Better Act will provide $ 2.4 trillion in spending and tax cuts by 2031 based on the findings of the Congressional Budget Office. The bill also includes $ 2.3 trillion in compensation payments, which resulted in a budget deficit of approximately $ 160 billion over the same period.

Fact check:Law of Reconciliation does not contain a “tax on animal husbandry”

If all of the Build Back Better Act’s temporary programs were made permanent, the group estimates they would cost nearly $ 4.8 trillion. The Wharton Budget Model, an economic forecasting model from the University of Pennsylvania, has published similar estimates.

But according to Marc Goldwein, Senior Vice President and Senior Policy Director at the Committee on Responsible Federal Budget, that estimate is the “upper limit of where we could end up”. And $ 5 trillion isn’t the cost of the bill itself.

“As written, it costs half the price,” he told USA TODAY in a telephone interview. “But it sets the stage for costs of up to $ 5 trillion.”

More:“A Huge Boost”: Biden’s bet on childcare is closer to reality, but could it increase spending for some?

That’s because the Build Back Better Act contains numerous program undoings and flows. For example, the draft law extends an increase in the child allowance by one year, while proposals for universal pre- and childcare would be designed for six years.

While some of the expiration dates in the bill are for one-time investments, Goldwein said others are a “gimmick” aimed at lowering the price of the legislation.

“I think it’s important to note that all of these expiration times are things that proponents want permanent,” he said.

Experts say some add-ons are likely, but not guaranteed

When the Build Back Better Act becomes law, future Congresses would decide whether to extend their temporary programs. Experts say this is likely for at least some programs, but it’s not set in stone.

“It’s all good supplemental information to such estimates, but the real cost of the bill is the net cost of the provisions actually included in the text,” Josh Bivens, director of research at the Liberal Economic Policy Institute, said in an email. “Everything else is a speculative guess about the future and in no way the ‘true’ or ‘more likely’ costs.”

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By including program flows and failures in the Build Back Better Act, Goldwein said, Democrats are taking a risk because they “don’t know what the make-up of Congress will look like in the future.”

But history suggests that at least some of the programs in the legislature would be renewed regardless of which party controls Congress.

In 2001 and 2003, Congress passed tax cuts during the George W. Bush administration. In 2010, when these cuts were due to expire, President Barack Obama signed a bill to extend them for two years. Most of the tax cuts became final in 2013 when Obama signed the American Taxpayer Relief Act.

More:“Crazy” or “Much Ado About Nothing”? How Joe Biden’s Build Back Better Plan Could Affect Inflation

“It’s impossible to say for sure what will be extended in five years,” Will McBride, federal vice president of tax and economic policy at the right-wing tax foundation, said in an email. “But we can look back at history to get an idea which suggests that many of these guidelines are more likely to be extended.”

Our assessment: Lack of context

Based on our research, we evaluate the claim that the Build Back Better Act costs $ 5 trillion in MISSING CONTEXT because it is misleading without additional information.

Two independent research estimates that the Build Back Better Act includes more than $ 2 trillion in spending and tax cuts. If all temporary programs of the Build Back Better Act were made permanent, they could cost more than $ 5 trillion, according to estimates by budget watchdog groups. Experts say Congress is likely to extend at least some of the programs, but that’s not as set in stone as the claim suggests.

Our fact check sources:

• US TODAY, Nov. 19, House passes Biden’s Build Back Better bill, sending action to Senate on free preschool and climate initiatives
• USA TODAY, November 19, What does the House-passed Build Back Better Act say? Paid Vacation, Universal Pre-K, and more
• USA TODAY, Nov. 18, Biden’s Build Back Better bill would increase national debt, a Congress estimate said
• Ballotpedia, accessed December 3, Citizens for Self-Government
• CrowdTangle, accessed Dec 3.
• Responsible Federal Budget Committee, Nov. 30, A Permanent Build Back Better Act Could Cost $ 4.8 Trillion
• Marc Goldwein, December 2nd, telephone interview with USA TODAY
• CNBC, Nov. 19, Build Back Better extends $ 3,000 child tax credit for one year
• Vox, October 28th, What’s in – and what’s out – Biden’s latest spending proposal
• The Federal Responsible Budget Committee, Oct. 28, New Build Back Better Framework relies too heavily on gimmicks
• The Committee on Responsible Federal Budget, Nov. 18, Full Estimates of the House Construction Act Better
• The Wharton Budget Model, November 15, HR 5376, BUILD BACK BETTER ACT: BUDGET AND MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS
• Will McBride, December 2nd, emailing the US TODAY
• Reason, December 1st, Biden’s Build Back Better Act will likely cost twice as much as the CBO projects. Here’s why.
• Congressional Budget Office, Nov. 18, Estimated Budgetary Impact from Title XIII, Committee on Means and Ways, HR 5376, the Build Back Better Act
• Josh Bivens, December 3rd, email exchanged with US TODAY
• The Tax Foundation, June 7, 2016, looking back at the Bush tax cuts fifteen years later
• Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, October 23, 2017, The Legacy of the 2001 and 2003 “Bush” Tax Cuts
• Washington Post, December 17, 2010, Obama signs bill to extend Bush-era tax cuts for another two years
• History, Art, and Archives of the US House of Representatives, Retrieved December 4, 111th Congress (2009-2011)
• Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Jan. 3, 2013, Budget Deal makes 82 percent of President Bush’s tax cuts permanent
• Responsible Federal Budget Committee, Nov. 15, Build Back Better costs would double with expansions
• The Federal Responsible Budget Committee, Nov. 18, CBO assesses the Build Back Better Act

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https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2021/12/07/fact-check-missing-context-claim-cost-build-back-better/8843153002/